The Nextier Poll on the state of the 2023 Presidential race has projected the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in first place, followed by Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidates of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) respectively.
This is yet another non-partisan poll that projects a Obi with a large lead, despite the weakness of the Labour Party’s geographical reach. While previous polls have been criticized for bad methodology or improper sampling, this one used face to face surveys in all states of the federation and found puzzling results, including Obi winning most states in the South West and outperforming the APC candidate in President Buhari’s home state of Katsina.
While the poll is being lauded or dismissed, depending on what political camp you survey, it also shows, like most other polls have, that no candidate might reach the constitutional requirement for a first round victory. This level of division within the ruling class is unprecedented in the history of Nigeria. No other election has been this close, with the exception of the 1979 elections that saw Shagari clinch victory despite receiving only a third of the votes cast.
It remains to be seen to what extent the pollsters are correct, and what this portends for the future of this country.
by Kayode Somtochukwu ANI