The practice of politicians switching tent from one political party to another which is often described as “political cross-carpeting” in Nigeria has been a defining feature of capitalist liberal democracy in Nigeria, particularly since the return to civil rule in 1999.
This could take the form of federal or state legislators switching allegiance to the party wielding executive power after an election, governors switching to the party of the president, ambitious aspirants switching parties after every election cycle in hopes to finding the right coalition to gain power (as Abubakar Atiku, Muhammadu Buhari and several others have done at different times) and even as part of grand political mergers, like the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013 and the ongoing efforts at doing something similar with the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
While such defections have been a staple of the bosses’ politics, the frequency, scale and shamelessness observed under the Tinubu regime reflects a deeper malaise developing in Nigeria’s political economy.
Cross-Carpeting as a Symptom of Institutional Decay
People usually expect political parties to be ideological platforms that serve as vehicles for contesting ideas, representing special interest groups or different factions of civil society, and offering coherent policy alternatives. But with the ruling class in Nigeria, political parties are not based on differing ideological preferences. They all stand for the same shade of neoliberal values and corrupt enrichment. They are vehicles of elite competition for access to state resources. Therefore cross-carpeting occurs with minimal resistance from party leadership and with little consequence from the electorate. It is a political system that is about elite bargaining and not representative governance. Attempts at symbolic representation is mostly along ethnic and religious lines.
Under the Tinubu presidency, cross-carpeting has reached new heights. The All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria’s ruling party, has become a gravitational centre pulling in members from opposition parties. These include governors, legislators, and political godfathers. This is not because of ideological alignment. The old logic of political patronage—rewarding loyalty with contracts, protection, and access to state wealth—is what Tinubu is using.
The hollowing out of institutions is evident in the Tinubu government’s strategic use of state power and economic leverage to induce defections. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the judiciary, anti-corruption agencies like the EFCC, and the armed forces are tools of executive manipulation, rather than independent institutions. This erosion of institutional integrity reinforces the culture of impunity that enables cross-carpeting.
But all of this is not novel. Political cross-carpeting is neither new nor is Tinubu the first to use state power to coerce political rivals in this manner. What might drive this intensification is the exacerbated effects of neoliberal policies driven by this administration.
Scarcity, Poverty, and Political Survivalism
Nigeria is in the throes of a deepening economic crisis. With over 60% of the population living in multidimensional poverty, rampant inflation, food insecurity, and a near-complete collapse of industrial capacity, the economic base of the state is eroding. The neoliberal economic policies championed by the Tinubu administration, such as the removal of fuel subsidies, devaluation of the naira, and privatization have increased the wealth of a select few on one hand, and poverty for everyone else, on the other.
In this context of increasing scarcity, capitalist politics devolves from a zero-sum game to something even worse. There is nothing more important to any faction of the ruling class than to have access to state power, so that they can gain and maintain access to wealth and continued political relevance. Institutional corruption intensifies across every tier. Political apathy increases and politicians, like governors and legislators, become increasingly less confident that they can win elections against a federal ruling party with access to state resources. The days are vanishing when the courts overturned elections against candidates of the ruling party.
The economic desperation brought on by neoliberal capitalist policies of the government is not limited to the masses alone. Some sections of the ruling class also feel it, even though not the way our class does. The shrinking national cake means factions within the ruling class are more eager to align with Tinubu’s APC to secure positions, contracts, and immunity from prosecution. This explains the accelerated defections from the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and smaller parties.
Electoralism and the Crisis of Legitimacy
These political gymnastics are taking place against the backdrop of a deep crisis of electoral legitimacy. Despite the expansion of voter registration, the actual voter turnout in Nigeria has continued to plummet with each election cycle. In the 2023 general elections, only about 27% of registered voters participated. This was the lowest in the country’s democratic history.
This stark apathy is not due to laziness or ignorance. It is a conscious rejection of a system that does not represent the people. The Nigerian ruling class has emptied democracy of content, reducing it to ritualised voting exercises every four years, followed by elite consensus around economic policies that impoverish the masses. As such, increasing numbers of working-class people are choosing to opt out, recognising that the game is rigged.
Yet, despite this crisis of legitimacy, the ruling elite continue to use ethnic and religious identities to shore up their rule. The 2023 elections saw sectarian and tribal rhetoric dominate campaign narratives, particularly in Lagos, where Yoruba identity was weaponized to suppress the rising influence of parties and persons that were aligned with the Igbo or other non-indigenous ethnic groups.
The use of identity politics is not accidental; it is a deliberate strategy. A united working class, across ethnic and religious lines, is the greatest threat to Nigeria’s ruling class. They keep the masses divided, ensuring the real problem of the political economy—class exploitation—never comes to the forefront.
The Failure of Industrialisation and the Rentier State
The Nigerian ruling class has failed to drive industrialisation. The state has continued to depend on oil rents and the current administration aims to accelerate that extractivist political economy. Decades of neoliberal prescriptions have led to a weak productive base symbolised by unemployment and scarcity. Factories lie abandoned, power generation is erratic and the small remaining industries are crippled by poor infrastructure and inflation
Not surprisingly wealth accumulation in this context is largely based on control over state revenue, especially oil rents. Therefore political office is the most lucrative job in Nigeria. This explains why cross-carpeting, far from betraying ideology, constitutes the core of the ruling class of bosses’ political ideology. The Nigerian ruling class does not believe in governance; it believes in sharing the spoils.
The Socialist Alternative
If the degeneration of Nigeria’s liberal democracy has shown anything, it is that capitalism offers no future for working people in the country. The Tinubu administration’s reliance on austerity, patronage, and identity politics mirrors the same tactics used by previous regimes, whether military or civilian. What has changed is the urgency of the crisis: Nigeria is hurtling towards a severe social breakdown.
The left must recognise this moment of instability as one of opportunity. Socialist forces in Nigeria need to unite around a clear revolutionary program that advocates and addresses both the immediate material needs of the masses, such as living wages and improved security and the political reorganisation of society. This means building class consciousness, boldly raising the banner of socialism within the labour movement, organising the informal sector, and building international solidarity with workers of different nationalities as we struggle to overthrow capitalism and smash the capitalists’ state power. None of these can be achieved at the drop of a hat. It may be a long and arduous struggle against the strong forces of capitalist hegemony. But as history has shown us, moments of capitalist crisis and opportunity arise. We must prepare our class and be ready.
by Blessing OGHOGHO
